A public opinion poll indicating 71 percent approval for the highly controversial Copperwood mine is being widely circulated by mine supporters.

The survey was conducted by EPIC-MRA, a Lansing, Mich., polling firm. Five Copperwood-related questions were included in a larger telephone survey of 600 registered voters in the state of Michigan; 55 of those respondents were from northern Lower Michigan or the Upper Peninsula.

Here’s how the poll’s sponsor, InvestUP, described the results of the poll.

“New statewide polling conducted by EPIC-MRA shows a majority (71 percent) of voters across Michigan support the Copperwood project in the Western Upper Peninsula. The polling demonstrates statewide support, especially in Northern, Western and Central Michigan as well as the Bay Region.”

That’s true, as long as you don’t look past the first question in the survey.

Question 1 presented several pro-mining statements before asking “do you support or oppose the project?” It didn’t say anything about the environmental impact of the mine or other possible drawbacks. That was saved for Question 2.

In brief, the first part of the question indicated that:

That’s the setup of the question that achieved 71 percent support for the mine. (You can read the full text of the question at the bottom of this report).

“It’s clearly focused on eliciting a response of support,” said Prof. Timothy O'Brien of the UW-Milwaukee Dept. of Sociology, who uses surveys in his teaching and research, after reviewing the questionnaire. “That becomes clear when the counterpoint is raised in the subsequent question. Then it becomes clear what the purpose, I think, of the first question is.”

The second question gave a brief explanation the anti-mine perspective (complete question below), indicating that opponents say the mine is located too close to Porcupine Mountain Wilderness State Park and would put Lake Superior and local wildlife at risk.

In response, 46 percent of the respondents said this information made them less likely to support the Copperwood project.

And, once environmental drawbacks were introduced in Question 2, approval dropped from 71 percent down to 61 percent, as measured when the the first question was restated as a follow-up item.

“I can imagine a survey where the first question is about protecting the Porcupines and Lake Superior and the wildlife,” O’Brien said. “My guess is, if that were the initial question, it would probably elicit [less support for the mine].”

Pollster Bernie Porn of EPIC-MRA disputes that the survey was skewed to support the objectives of the client, InvestUP, which is a strong advocate for the mine development, and insisted that the survey questions followed best practices for public opinion research.

“EPIC-MRA has been in the polling business for more than 40 years and we have a proven track-record of being the most accurate pollster in the state,” Porn said. “As with all our polls, the methodology behind this one is sound and we stand by the results. As you can see, we tested both positive and negative messaging. Even after respondents heard the negative messaging, 61 percent still support the project.”

Prof. Michael Wagner, scholar at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who conducts survey research, sees it differently.

“The way that I read [the survey] is that one question was a bunch of reasons that you would want [the mine], and then the next question was maybe one reason that you wouldn't want it, and then you saw the support go down a little bit, in that second question,” Wagner said.

“The support I think is artificially high from the way the first question was asked.”

When asked directly whether it was fair to call the poll biased in favor of the mine, especially in the wording of Question 1, Wagner responded, “That's fair.”

It may be that the InvestUP poll is right, more or less, in finding widespread support for the Copperwood mine.

EPIC-MRA s a well-known public opinion and market research firm that frequently conducts polling for political candidates, and there is plenty of anecdotal evidence that the mine is popular in the western Upper Peninsula, an economically depressed area.

However, experts confirm that the wording of the first survey question in particular was biased in favor of the mine project, as opponents have already pointed out.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research, “Best Practices for Survey Research,” warns against this, advising researchers to “keep questions free of bias by avoiding language that pushes respondents to respond in a certain way or that presents only one side of an issue.”

The Copperwood survey results should be evaluated with that in mind.

Full text of survey Question 1

“The Western Upper Peninsula has a rich history of mining. Since the region’s copper mine closed in the 1990s, the population has drastically declined and there is an urgent need for jobs and opportunities. Now, demand for copper in the U.S. is surging because of its importance to energy, infrastructure, advanced manufacturing and national defense. In fact, it is estimated that there will be a 30% supply shortfall by 2035, making us rely on foreign countries for this critical mineral. To meet this demand, a company wants to construct and open a mine, called the Copperwood Project, near Ironwood that will create 700 direct and indirect good-paying jobs while meeting all of Michigan’s stringent environmental standards. Based on what you may know or have heard or read about the proposed copper mine, do you support or oppose the project?”

Full text of survey Question 2

“A group called Protect the Porkies opposes the Copperwood Project because they believe it is located too close to Porcupine Mountain Wilderness State Park. They also claim mining activity will put Lake Superior and local wildlife at risk. Does this make you more likely to support the proposed copper mine, less likely to support it, or will this not influence you one way or the other?”

InvestUP declined to comment on this report.

Google Gemini AI was used for background research.

Timothy L. O’Brien is an associate professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. His research focuses on the cultural authority of science and religion.

Michael W. Wagner is the Director of the School of Journalism and Mass Communication, William T. Evjue Distinguished Chair for the Wisconsin Idea and Professor of Journalism and Mass Communication at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. His research examines how individuals’ experiences in the information ecology are associated with what they believe to be true, what they want from their government in terms of public policies, and how they participate civically and politically.

Mark Doremus is a journalist and filmmaker covering mining, the environment and occasional fun stuff in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. He holds a doctorate and a law degree from the University of Wisconsin.